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LPs Should Ask For Unlevered Returns

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LPs in value-added and opportunistic real estate funds should demand GPs frequently report unlevered returns to enable investors to assess whether returns are truly risk-adjusted.

In an interview with PrivcapRE, a panel of performance experts from Cambridge Associates, GCM Grosvenor and PREA, stress that getting access to property-level data and unlevered returns was critical for LPs to assess the risk being taken by a strategy or manager.

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Strong Returns Could Continue To 2018

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Increasingly strong returns from value-added and opportunistic real estate funds are expected to continue through 2017 or 2018, as LPs and GPs recycle capital more quickly than planned.

Our panel of performance experts, Marc Cardillo of Cambridge Associates, Peter Braffman of GCM Grosvenor and Greg MacKinnon of PREA, discuss how value-added and opportunistic funds compare to their core and open-ended rivals, how capital flows will continue to drive strong returns over the next two to three years, which vintage year is expected to be the best performer in this cycle, and whether public or private real estate offers the best prospect for future gains.

The panel, reviewing real estate net and gross returns for 2014 and 2015, argues that core, value-added and opportunistic strategies are all delivering strong—if not exceptional—returns, with only a slight deceleration expected in the near-term. However, as the volume of distressed real estate in the U.S. declines, investors need to prepare for a change in outcomes from their value-added and opportunistic investments.

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MidEast Capital Deeper, More Targeted In Deals

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Middle Eastern capital sources are becoming deeper, much more sophisticated and taking a ‘rifle-shot’ approach to investing in the asset class. Yet, there are still significant misconceptions about the region’s investors.

Piyush Bhardwaj, managing principal of CoInvestment Capital Partners and former head of transactions at Mubadala Prudential Real Estate Investors, talks about little-known Middle Eastern capital sources comprising family offices, institutions, pension funds, and insurance companies, and how they are set to become long-term private capital partners internationally as they look to diversify their portfolios.

He also explores return thresholds and cost of capital for Middle Eastern investors and how many are being much more targeted in the property types and deals being sought. He advises GPs and operators how to approach Middle Eastern capital, arguing that in the wake of the crisis having knowledgeable deal professionals and senior team members on hand for fundraising conversations is critical.

The post MidEast Capital Deeper, More Targeted In Deals appeared first on PrivcapRE.

New Mexico On Dynamic Investing, Co-investments

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As institutional investors eye a maturing real estate cycle, many are asking how they can be more dynamic with their asset allocation tools. PrivcapRE spoke to New Mexico Educational Retirement Board about the challenges of being a more active investor, and how co-investments will play an increasingly critical role for the pension.

Mark Canavan, New Mexico Educational Retirement Board

Having more dynamic asset allocation strategies offers institutional investors greater flexibility to maximize performance by actively placing and rotating capital into market opportunities based on analytics, timing, and capitalizing on dislocations.

However, Mark Canavan, senior portfolio manager of real assets for the New Mexico Educational Retirement Board (NMERB), admits, “It’s definitely not for everyone. It’s tons of work, requires a lot of hours and it’s definitely more stressful.” Yet, for Canavan, the benefits of pursuing investment opportunities best suited to market conditions far outweighs being hamstrung by strict allocation mandates.

Canavan spoke about the strengths of NMERB’s real assets strategy, staff structure, decision-making process, , and the importance of co-investments for the platform.

PrivcapRE: What is the main theme that drives your plan’s preference for dynamic allocation models?

Canavan: You don’t want to be forced to invest because policy says you have to. Why have a policy or allocation that dictates that kind of behavior? In 2006 and 2007, if your policy and pacing plan mandated a strict target for core and you were underweight in your allocation, you had to invest in core anyway. This would have been the worst time to invest in core. You should have the latitude to do what’s best for the portfolio and you shouldn’t be making decisions solely based on strict preset mandates.

You say the flexibility of NMERB’s real estate tactical strategies plays a large role in your ability to maximize risk-adjusted returns. Why aren’t more plans pursuing similar strategies?

In my opinion, the market has been oversold on the concept of traditional asset allocation. NMERB has a board that’s forward-thinking and saw the potential of giving staff more accountability and creativity. They saw the investment acumen of the staff and felt they could trust us. A lot of boards are consultant-driven. We are staff-driven and have a very collaborative relationship with our consultants. They are, in essence, outsourced employees.

What role does the co-investment program play in executing your strategy?

To continue to be tactical you need to move towards co-investments or direct models. You need to have flexibility over entry and exit—when the play is over you want out. It’s important to have liquidity mechanisms. Our mandate has ranges that allow us to maneuver and I do have authority to sell secondary positions into the market if I have to.

If you’re a large enough plan you can run a co-investment program in-house. We created a compromise and made our own private label funds—a “fund of one”—so we had a platform to execute. We are the LP, and we outsourced staff for co-investments to [consultant] Real Asset Portfolio Management. They have discretion within a box.

First, I get a pipeline report that I can use to steer my consultant staff in the direction I want them to go on a macro basis. Then they pursue opportunities, for which they will send me a “heads up memo” on the investments they like. At this point I can say yes or no. Then I get a final recommendation, and again, at that point I can give them discretion to execute, or I can veto. Once I’ve given them execution authority, they have full discretion to close without having to come back to the investment committee.

Given staff constraints, how is your team is structured and who do you lean on most?

There are a few layers. You need to start with a good generalist consultant who can see the overall lay of the land. Then it requires adding consultants with a tremendous amount of area-specific expertise. Lastly, in executing specific investments you need a rifle-shot level of expertise. It’s also important to have a high-level of collaboration between the consultant and the staff where they arrive at decisions through consensus.

I have a consultant dedicated to infrastructure and another for real estate, where the real estate group has an affiliate that handles timber, agriculture, and mitigation banking.

How do GPs fit within the scope of your program?

While we’re really focused on our co-investment program right now, we still value our manager relationships. They bolster our capabilities by creating access to additional co-investment flow. Without access to co-investments, there’s a lower probability I’ll work with you.

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Why TruAmerica Wants Patient Capital Backing

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Fresh on the heels of spending $482M on a 14-property portfolio of U.S. workforce housing, TruAmerica Multifamily CEO Bob Hart has declared that he prefers the backing of patient capital in today’s market.

Ruling out raising a closed-ended fund “at this time”, the veteran multifamily investor tells PrivcapRE how partnering with institutional investors such as GuardianLife and Allstate Investments was a strategic way of targeting the Class B multifamily sector.

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Oregon’s Strategy for Long-Term Investing

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Anthony Breault, senior portfolio manager at the State of Oregon Treasury, explains how he invests for the long term in real estate, the challenges of redeploying capital in rising markets, and how JVs and open-ended funds are helping the pension achieve those goals.

As institutional investors look to become more dynamic with their asset-allocation strategies, the State of Oregon Treasury maintains its emphasis on long-duration strategies in real estate—and sees joint ventures and open-ended funds as a means of achieving that goal.   

Anthony Breault, State of Oregon Treasury

“Reinvestment risk is my single greatest concern,” says Anthony Breault, real estate investment officer for the Oregon Public Employees’ Retirement Fund, discussing the challenges of keeping money deployed in a market where manager relationships are typically built around finite fund-life terms.

It’s an investment hurdle that Breault eloquently refers to as “timeline angst,” and something his team has been trying to overcome with the increased use of joint ventures and open-ended funds while at the same time maximizing risk-adjusted returns for the plan.

To fully appreciate the challenges Breault and his staff face, PrivcapRE speaks to Breault about Oregon’s $8B real estate portfolio. The team collaborates with consultants to recommend diversified investments that target 30 percent core real estate strategies, 30 percent opportunistic, 20 percent value-add, and 20 percent public REIT investments. Additionally, the total portfolio has a tactical allocation separate from real estate where shorter-term or “non-sustainable” opportunities, such as public-private investment programs and similar opportunistic plays, can be pursued.

Within the real estate portfolio, Breault’s team employs “large enough” allocation bandwidth that allows it to respond more dynamically to market conditions by going overweight or underweight within the pre-specified risk buckets. 

“We have bandwidths that allow us to tilt our exposures,” says Breault. “For example, in our opportunistic or core portfolios, we have a 30 percent target, and we can go plus or minus 10 percent based on market conditions. This gives us a lot of leeway.”

For Oregon, having the latitude provided by such bandwidth is critical to maintaining valuable long-term positions in the face of a rising market, rather than being forced into selling in order to rebalance rigid asset-allocation buckets. “It’s a continual process and not that fluid,” says Breault. “It takes too long to shift the portfolio, so we are making micro-movements every step of the way. It takes time to get money out to the market.”

Given such a strategy, Oregon is increasingly looking beyond traditional closed-ended fund investments and, over the past three years, has given a growing role to joint ventures.

“With closed-ended funds managers, with a finite fund life, their underwriting standards can be limited to a hold period that does not match the specific investment opportunity,” says Breault. “This can hamper the needed flexibility for achieving the best risk-adjusted returns for the real estate asset class. With our closed-ended funds, we often find large portions of our portfolios selling at less than maximum value due to a termination date that doesn’t match with the market cycle.”

Breault says he ultimately wants “less of this timeline angst” and greater “simplicity” to create longer-duration structures “that provide the management team the needed flexibility to do the right thing.”

The evergreen nature of joint ventures is therefore appealing, Breault says, offering “tremendous flexibility without a looming date to trigger a sale.”

“[JV] vehicles have the ability to naturally outperform, on a risk-adjusted basis, by achieving greater consistency in long–term returns without complete reliance on market timing,” says Breault. Fee efficiencies and transparency also add to the appeal of JVs. For similar reasons, Breault believes the open-ended fund structure also provides an improved alignment for the real estate asset class.

While the liquidity function of open-ended funds may be more perception than reality, Oregon’s team is also considering future investments in these structures to take advantage of the evergreen design. For a long-term investor that has a need to be “always in the market,” open-ended funds help minimize the constant frictional trading costs created by the closed-end model, Breault says. “However, there are limits to the open-end fund universe,” he adds. “Investors don’t have much of a choice in the opportunistic market, which only provides closed-ended products.”

Describing what Oregon looks for in managers, Breault says a lean staffing model creates a preference for scaling capital with existing relationships. The Oregon real estate team also focuses on “structuring investments with managers that have broad enough mandates and that can look out at the bigger universe so [we] aren’t continually sourcing.”

While Oregon’s portfolio primarily consists of larger, more experienced managers, the investment team is continuously looking for and considering managers with between $300M to $1B of assets under management who can execute on niche or more tactical strategies. “This is the next generation of managers we can grow with over the years,” says Breault. “Our first investments with many of our existing larger managers were back when they were smaller platforms.”

Overall, a blended portfolio of JVs, open-ended funds, and a selective focus on commingled, closed-ended funds are proving to be the panacea for Oregon’s long-duration investment goals.

As Breault explains: “For [us], JVs provide the scalability and real-time visibility to keep our fingers on the pulse of the real estate markets, and from a structuring point of view, we can improve our buy-side discipline and alignment by removing much of the timeline angst out of incentives to deploy capital.”

The post Oregon’s Strategy for Long-Term Investing appeared first on PrivcapRE.

Core Continues to Win The Day For Investors

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Core real estate continues to provide very good risk-adjusted returns for investors, even with the wave of capital targeting major markets across the U.S. helping push prices further north.

According to Sean Bannon, Zurich Alternative Asset Management’s head of U.S. real estate, who manages the insurance company’s $2.5B direct investment program, significant capital inflows into the asset class are a risk factor for all investors, and need to be underwritten as such. Bannon also talks to PrivcapRE about:

  • Not forcing portfolio construction in today’s competitive markets. Having a long-term view of the market will ensure the right balance of assets.
  • How Zurich is targeting core, cash-flow assets in major markets and wants to expand its U.S. focus, but could look to non-core joint ventures with operating partners in the future.
  • Expectations that new capital sources targeting U.S. real estate are here for the long haul.

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LPs ‘Rejiggering’ Energy Allocations

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Whether or not limited partners reconsider the timing of their energy allocation depends on how long it takes for oil prices to recover, says NEPC’s Sean Ruhmann.

As oil prices continue to hang out below where most private equity investors would like them to be, the question is whether LPs will change their energy allocation strategies.

Sean Ruhmann, NEPC

In a private context, limited partners mainly tend to allocate to energy in one of two ways within their portfolios—in the real assets bucket or broader private equity bucket—and that’s not likely to change with oil price volatility, says NEPC partner and director of real assets research Sean Ruhmann. What is likely to change in the short term is rejiggering the pace of energy investments.

This year there has certainly been a change in investment commitment plans by LPs, Ruhmann says. Some strive to have a balanced real assets bucket—also including infrastructure, timber, agriculture, and metals and mining—with forward-pacing commitments, but the timing of investments in those real assets has been shuffled.

“The change this year has been for folks that might have had timber or agriculture or infrastructure [commitments] switching to energy commitments instead,” he says. “They’re rejiggering the pace of energy investments. Because [energy investments] look a lot better at $50 than at $100. From the summer of last year to today, given the path of oil, we’re seeing a fairly major dislocation. The natural inclination is that this is a good opportunity to invest [in energy] today.”

For example, an LP may have a $10M capital commitment of real assets for the next three years, Ruhmann says, with a plan of doing infrastructure and energy this year, and something else the following year.

“If oil rebounds really quickly and gets back up to a price that is $70 or higher groups that intend to rejigger their commitment-pacing to invest in energy this year might reconsider that,” he continues. “If oil is low for the better part of the year, the movement toward energy funds should persist.”

Despite the boom in oil and gas production in North America over the last five years, the target allocation of LPs for energy investments hasn’t changed much, whether it’s coming from the real assets bucket or more general private equity bucket, says Ruhmann.

As for the attitude of managers investing across the board—in commodities, and both public and private equities—at the end of 2014 the tone was a lot more bearish than it is currently, Ruhmann says. “The price of oil has rebounded, and there are not quite as many bears in the market today. They’re optimistic that it will rebound faster.”

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A Call to Break the Fund Mold

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Drew Ierardi, senior portfolio manager of private markets at Exelon, urges GPs to think more creatively about fund structures and investment periods.

GPs should think more creatively about the structure of real estate commingled funds and not be afraid to “break the mold” of the private equity model, says Exelon senior portfolio manager Drew Ierardi.

Drew Ierardi, Exelon

As the $15B corporate pension plan juggles the challenges of redeploying early fund distributions back into strengthening real estate markets, Ierardi calls on investment managers to be innovative and candid about the best way to invest in the asset class today.

“Traditional closed-ended vehicles are ripe for innovation,” he says. “I’m open to seeing more new types of fund structures that attempt to break the mold in whatever direction that is.”

One of the key challenges Ierardi and Exelon face is earlier-than-expected distributions back from value-added and opportunistic funds that have sold assets following strong capital appreciation. By using real estate as a pure total return play rather than needing a component for current income, the early distributions have generated great IRRs but impacted equity multiple expectations.

For Ierardi, the early distributions have also left him facing the risk of investing capital into a rising market that could peak during a new fund’s investment period. “Because we are a fund investor, if we sign fund documents today that [capital commitment] isn’t going to be invested for another 18 months so you’re not buying at 2015 prices, you’re buying at 2016 and 2017 prices.

“In a way, it would be easier if we thought the world was going to fall off a cliff in two years, because we’d be able to react in specific ways in anticipation of that. But given the potential distribution of outcomes from this point forward, how can anyone be confident in the state of the market two years out?” he asks.

Conceding that investing in real estate is harder for investors today, Ierardi explains that there is much less clarity over the direction of the property markets—and the pricing of assets—than at any point in the wake of the crisis. “It makes us hesitate to commit capital,” he says.

As a result, Ierardi wants to see managers think differently in terms of fund structures in an effort to help investors “embed optionality” in their own portfolios.

While there is no “silver bullet,” Ierardi suggests there is a “place in the universe” for longer-life vehicles in the value-added and opportunistic world, where managers could afford to be “a little bit candid and willing to say that maybe the best decision we can make right now isn’t to reinvest the gains [in a new fund] but to hold those assets longer.”

The pension is also trying to give itself more options by introducing a tiered commitment for some of its real estate re-ups, whereby the plan commits to a follow-on fund at the same level as the prior vehicle but reserves the option at a later stage in the fundraising process to commit a further 20 to 25 percent capital.

Exelon has 6 percent of its total fund allocated to real estate, investing in REITs, core, value-added, and opportunistic strategies. However, owing to a separate $5B liability hedging strategy, Exelon can focus its real estate investments purely on generating returns and doesn’t need to invest if the opportunities aren’t present in the market.

“The way the pension is structured allows us a lot of flexibility to pick investments based on where we are at any point in time, what we are seeing, and what we think makes most sense on a risk-adjusted basis,” says Ierardi.

That flexibility also applies to the need for diversification within the real estate portfolio. Taking a whole-plan view of diversification—rather than trying to achieve diversification within the real estate portfolio alone—it means Exelon doesn’t have to “force a fit” for any particular real estate strategy.

“It takes a lot of pressure off us and means I don’t have to call the bottom in a market like Brazil, for example, because we’re already positioned to participate in that story through other asset classes,” says Ierardi. “We are ultimately trying to use real estate to build a diversified portfolio, not just trying to build a diversified real estate portfolio. We have that and it’s helpful, but flexibility over diversification allows a lot of room to reach more unusual answers.”

The post A Call to Break the Fund Mold appeared first on PrivcapRE.

LaSalle’s Jeff Jacobson Joins RE Game Change Conference

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Jacobson and other luminaries will explore the ‘seismic shift ahead’ in institutional real estate.

Jeff Jacobson, CEO, Americas at LaSalle Investment Management, a private equity real estate firm with over $56B in AUM, will be a keynote speaker at Privcap Media’s Real Estate Game Change conference at the Gleacher Center in Chicago November 3.

Learn more about the event here.

Jacobson will be joined by some of the brightest minds in institutional real estate investing, including Colony Capital’s Thomas Barrack, TIAA-CREF’s Suzan Amato, Allstate’s Edgar Alvarado and Dune Real Estate Partner’s Dan Neidich.

Other confirmed panelists include Kennedy Wilson’s Nick Colonna and UPS Group’s Greg Spick.

Jeff Jacobson, LaSalle Investment Management

Real Estate Game Change 2015 is the premier event for institutional real estate investment, designed to bring together an ecosystem of fund managers with investors and real estate operators to explore the disruptions affecting the real estate investment opportunity.

The conference will also feature speakers and panelists from:

Townsend Group
McGladrey
Metropolitan Real Estate
Morgan Stanley
Clarion Partners
Pension Consulting Alliance
Harrison Street Real Estate Capital
Cypress Equities
RCLCO
Sterling Organization
GTIS Parnters
Mesa West Capital

The post LaSalle’s Jeff Jacobson Joins RE Game Change Conference appeared first on PrivcapRE.

Investment Excellence Compendium

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In a world of unprecedented cross-border capital flows and rising valuations, it has become increasingly important for institutional real estate investors to ensure investment excellence from all of their partners. This report, produced in partnership with McGladrey, taps into PrivcapRE’s extensive network of experts who provide comprehensive intelligence on the issues facing dealmakers, investors, and advisors as they confront the challenge of finding relative value in highly competitive property markets.

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Featuring insights from experts at:

Bentall Kennedy, Clarion Partners, The Carlyle Group, BlackRock Real Estate, Sterling Organization, Prudential Real Estate Investors, Zurich Alternative Asset Management, Rockbridge, Reis, Rockspring Property Investment Managers, Shorenstein Properties, TIAA-CREF, Dune Real Estate Partners, Keystone Property Group, The Peebles Corporation, CoInvestment Partners, Alcion Ventures, Madison International Realty, LEM Capital, New Mexico Educational Retirement Board, Exelon, Courtland Partners, GID International, Oregon State Treasury, Exeter Property Group, Mesa West Capital, The Townsend Group, Carmel Real Estate Partners, McGladrey

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Townsend Guides LPs to Global Diversification

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Turmoil in global equity markets has put greater investor focus on real estate. With market demand for core plays in U.S. and European gateway cities running at record levels, the time is right to consider diversifying globally.

“In the face of uncertainty, demand has shot up,” says Prashant Tewari, a principal with The Townsend Group. “There is no abating in investor appetite for stabilized assets, especially in developed countries.” He is describing the continuing demand for real estate in the face of nerve-rattling headlines that include China’s economic slowdown, turmoil in the Middle East, and debt crises in Greece and Puerto Rico.  “Looking at the numbers from core performance among ODCE funds, the market is really strong.”

As an institutional investor with $13B under management and as an advisor to more than $150B in client real estate, the Townsend team has kept its finger on the pulse of investor sentiment as the landscape has shifted.  “Investors see real estate as a safer place,” says Tewari. “The sector has been shielded from volatility in terms of returns.”

Prashant Tewari, The Townsend Group

Prashant Tewari, The Townsend Group

However, investors would do well to align their time horizon with the real estate cycle as it crests.  “Over the next three to five years, investors focused on U.S. non-core strategies may be disappointed as they invest in blind pools, value-add and opportunistic funds that will look to invest over the next three years and harvest in seven years,” Tewari explains. “That will put you well on the other side of the cycle by then and returns may be less likely to materialize.”

Instead, Tewari recommends that investors “favor those investments with no J-curve impact,” that include global opportunities and “special situations” that are poised to perform during this cycle.

“We are looking for neglected areas around the world,” he says. “Global cycles are not synced up as they have been in the past. For example, the U.S. and U.K. have grown for a while now while Japan and Europe have struggled, and Australia has been neglected. There’s a looming slowdown in China and recession in Brazil.  Meanwhile, Mexico is doing well and India is accelerating. If there were ever a time to get diversification, now is the time.”

The key when looking at these neglected areas in the world, according to Tewari, is to be both creative and selective within global markets while not getting entrenched.  “We are not tied to any single market,” he adds. “If the timing is not right we are patient and can shift to other geographies and property types for better opportunities.”   

Tewari also advises on getting innovative—focusing the specific drivers propelling special situations in particular markets. This includes looking at emerging markets, with a mix of traditional asset classes and those that are considered somewhat alternative, including property sectors such as hotels, student housing, self storage, and hotels. For reference, he provides wide-ranging global examples including U.S.-dollar denominated investments in Mexico, senior secured lending in India, and self storage in Singapore.

“Astute investors will get away from the herd mentality of pursuing the same strategies until the returns fade,” says Tewari. “Smart players will have a higher risk appetite, cast a global net, and seek creative deals and partners.”


The views of Townsend Holdings LLC are as of the date of this publication and may be changed or modified at any time and without notice and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This document may contain statements that constitute “forward looking statements.” While these statements may represent the judgment and future expectations of Townsend, a number of uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations of Townsend.

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Colony’s CIO: Get in Front of Global Capital

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With just one week until Privcap’s Real Estate Game Change conference in Chicago, Colony Capital’s chief investment officer, Kevin Traenkle, took time out to share his thoughts on game-changers that could reshape the institutional real estate market. Traenkle will be speaking at the event alongside Dune Real Estate’s Dan Neidich and LaSalle Investment Management’s Jeff Jacobson.

Investing where banks are not investing.

A general pullback by traditional banks has left a void that would ideally be filled by private real estate investment capital. “New regulatory requirements are forcing banks to reduce risk relative to what they have participated in the past,” says Traenkle. “This reduction in risk has made them more conservative and on a net basis they are not lending as much.”

Kevin Traenkle, Colony Capital

Traenkle says that in an asset class as large as real estate, even a marginal pullback translates to potentially hundreds of billions of dollars leaving the space over time. “In any industry where there is a dislocation or structural changes it takes time for the marketplace to find its way to equilibrium.” As the market balances out there will be demand for new sources of capital and “mispricings” that will benefit savvy investors.

Over the next three years there will be a sizable stream of maturing loans in the U.S., which originated at the height of the last cycle. With less bank activity on the lending side, “loans that can’t be financed—situations where equity owners are underwater, distressed loans, workouts, and restructurings—will all need to take place while there is less availability of bank capital,” says Traenkle. “And when you look at Europe, the situation is even more pronounced.”

Filling the lending gaps is where Traenkle sees major opportunity. “People providing capital where banks aren’t today can achieve yields that are attractive versus the risk they are taking.”

Playing demographic trends, targeting industrial, urban and high-end retail

Urbanization is a theme that has been playing out in many top-tier global markets.   The surge of educated and well-employed people moving to large urban centers will drive investment opportunity.

“As we get critical mass in urban areas, there are more people, which translates into more foot traffic and, thus, more value,” Traenkle says. “This is especially true for higher-end retail.”

Traenkle sees additional potential throughout the retail supply chain as companies play off the rise in the buying public. “Retail requires infrastructure and major components are the warehouses and distribution centers,” he explains. “If all this inventory isn’t housed in retail centers it needs to be stored somewhere.”

Traenkle’s upbeat perspective includes the soaring world of online shopping. “Even if we have drones delivering to everyone, the drones have to pick up inventory from somewhere,” he says.

Getting ahead of global capital flows

There is the rush of money headed to the U.S. from international sources, as investors search for yield and seek safe havens from volatile markets.

“We’re continuing to see capital flows from foreign jurisdictions looking to get exposure to U.S.[dollar]-denominated hard assets,” Traenkle says. “In China the devaluation of the yuan has made people who own yuan-denominated assets think about diversifying. Turmoil in the Middle East is creating a flight to safety, and in Europe they have a whole slate of issues—all of which has made the stability of the U.S. attractive on a capital preservation basis.”

As large volumes of capital flow towards the U.S., Traenkle suggests domestic managers and investors position themselves accordingly. “Core, gateway markets seem to be the product of choice for foreign capital. Helping foreign capital place their money into products that suit their needs will certainly be a good business to be in. Getting in front of the wave is never a bad thing.”

 

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INREV Chief: Transparency, Immigration in Spotlight

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As CEO of INREV, the European association for investors in non-listed real estate vehicles, Matthias Thomas keeps his finger on the pulse of that sector. Among the topics discussed are transparency, fees in the world of private real estate, and how the influx of immigration into European countries is impacting non-listed real estate.

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More Pathways Open for DC Plan Sponsors

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Seismic shifts continue to open pathways for defined-contribution plan sponsors to invest in alternative assets and private real estate. Following regulatory changes and an increasing investor awareness that has been hastened by a number of high-profile plans—led, notably, by Intel—there have been significant strides in navigating the existing liquidity, valuation, and fee concerns that could lay the groundwork to rapidly grow this nascent investor base.       

Scott Brooks, Defined Contribution Real Estate Council

“We are identifying groups who have put money to play,” says Scott Brooks, a co-founder of the Defined Contribution Real Estate Council an industry group that works with DC plan sponsors to help promote the asset class within their portfolios. These include Intel, the State of Washington, the grocery chain H.E.B., Michigan Municipal Employee Retirement System, and the Australian superannuation fund, SunSuper, he adds.

Brooks shines a light on the ever-widening number of DC plans that have allocations to alternative asset classes. “It’s accurate to say there have been a dozen formal searches for private real estate in DC plans over the past year, with somewhere in the range of $1.5B allocated as a result of those searches.”

While there are many factors driving the interest in diversification, the sizable capital flows heading into target-date funds (TDFs)—widely popular structures that allow DC plans to invest in alternatives—are quite compelling. Stemming from the 2006 Pension Protection Act, TDFs were defined as “qualified default investment alternative (QDIA) structures,” removing fiduciary liability for plan administrators who auto-enroll employees, hoping to increase participation. Brooks explains, “In a world where people are too busy to make decisions, if an employee doesn’t choose investments in their retirement plan, they will get automatically enrolled by the plan sponsor into the plan’s QDIA [target-date funds].”

According to reports from Northern Trust and BenefitsPro, DCs are increasingly choosing TDFs and, more importantly, custom (or managed) TDF solutions to balance “extreme allocations.”    

“The importance of investment structures in DC has gotten on the radar of finance teams, and they are getting more involved and in control of these decisions,” observes Lew Minsky, president and CEO of the Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association, also a leading nonprofit industry group. “There’s an opportunity to capture the liquidity premium and have a real risk-management focus. It has as much to do with capturing the correlation to performance and returns, as well as doing a better job of hedging, with all the investment solutions that are available. If you are only in mutual funds, there are limits to what’s available.”

Lew Minsky, Defined Contribution Institutional Investor Association

Both Minsky and Brooks relay that, while there is growing goodwill for illiquid investments, there are still hurdles to their broad adoption.

“There are two very strong macro trends that are coming up against each other,” says Minsky. “One is a strong desire by large plan sponsors to shift focus to drive better outcomes. The competing factor—as a result of regulatory initiatives, litigation, and scrutiny—is a bit of myopia towards low costs and a focus on fees.”

Brooks concurs, adding, “The ‘2 and 20’ fee model is harder to justify over 30-basis-point fees found in passive structures. Yes, it’s more expensive, but the industry is beginning to see that it’s worth the cost because of the real benefit in excess of fees. Plan sponsors with treasury and finance teams get it—they have a keen understanding of what works in creating an optimal asset allocation. As more professional finance people become focused on [the] marketplace, interest in TDFs and managed accounts will gain more strength.”

Valuation is also a concern, going hand in hand with asset classes such as real estate. Brooks comments that “while demand for liquidity is declining for the leading edge of this business, it’s still a concern. Real estate has done a good job of positioning daily valuation through third parties, though for many plan sponsors, quarterly reporting is all right with them as well.” He also highlights the success of Intel as a framework for other plans: “What’s beautiful about Intel—which has been doing this for seven years—is that they have closed-end PE funds and traditional hedge funds in their overall allocation.”

Brooks advises that the most beneficial industry shift will come from accountants “sharpening their pencils” and figuring out the best methods based on generally accepted accounting standards. “It’s work, but once you establish the process, it’s pretty easy when we are talking about between 5 to 15 percent of the overall portfolio,” he says. “It would take huge missteps to move NAV at the overall fund level.”      

The DC space is prime to move towards closed-end funds. Plan sponsors are looking to achieve the narrower range of risk-managed outcomes of their defined-benefit counterparts, which will work in real estate’s favor. As managers find a better path to reporting and representing the value of their expertise, DC plans are poised to shift the investor landscape.

“My hope is that factors come together [to where] the shift is a focus on value for money over fees,” Minsky says. “That’s where the evolution will come, and decisions in the DC space will look like the DB space, where decisions are based on the best value and outcomes.”

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Townsend Guides LPs to Global Diversification

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Turmoil in global equity markets has put greater investor focus on real estate. With market demand for core plays in U.S. and European gateway cities running at record levels, the time is right to consider diversifying globally.

“In the face of uncertainty, demand has shot up,” says Prashant Tewari, a principal with The Townsend Group. “There is no abating in investor appetite for stabilized assets, especially in developed countries.” He is describing the continuing demand for real estate in the face of nerve-rattling headlines that include China’s economic slowdown, turmoil in the Middle East, and debt crises in Greece and Puerto Rico.  “Looking at the numbers from core performance among ODCE funds, the market is really strong.”

As an institutional investor with $13B under management and as an advisor to more than $170B in client real estate, the Townsend team has kept its finger on the pulse of investor sentiment as the landscape has shifted.  “Investors see real estate as a safer place,” says Tewari. “The sector has been shielded from volatility in terms of returns.”

Prashant Tewari, The Townsend Group

Prashant Tewari, The Townsend Group

However, investors would do well to align their time horizon with the real estate cycle as it crests.  “Over the next three to five years, investors focused on U.S. non-core strategies may be disappointed as they invest in blind pools, value-add and opportunistic funds that will look to invest over the next three years and harvest in seven years,” Tewari explains. “That will put you well on the other side of the cycle by then and returns may be less likely to materialize.”

Instead, Tewari recommends that investors “favor those investments with lower J-curve impact,” that include global opportunities and “special situations” that are poised to perform during this cycle.

“We are looking for neglected areas around the world,” he says. “Global cycles are not synced up as they have been in the past. For example, the U.S. and U.K. have grown for a while now while Japan and Europe have struggled, and Australia has been neglected. There’s a looming slowdown in China and recession in Brazil.  Meanwhile, Mexico is doing well and India is accelerating. If there were ever a time to get diversification, now is the time.”

The key when looking at these neglected areas in the world, according to Tewari, is to be both creative and selective within global markets while not getting entrenched.  “We are not tied to any single market,” he adds. “If the timing is not right we are patient and can shift to other geographies and property types for better opportunities.”   

Tewari also advises on getting innovative—focusing the specific drivers propelling special situations in particular markets. This includes looking at emerging markets, with a mix of traditional asset classes and those that are considered somewhat alternative, including property sectors such as hotels, student housing, self storage, and hotels. For reference, he provides wide-ranging global examples including U.S.-dollar denominated investments in Mexico, senior secured lending in India, and self storage in Singapore.

“Astute investors will get away from the herd mentality of pursuing the same strategies until the returns fade,” says Tewari. “Smart players will have a higher risk appetite, cast a global net, and seek creative deals and partners.”


The views of Townsend Holdings LLC are as of the date of this publication and may be changed or modified at any time and without notice and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This document may contain statements that constitute “forward looking statements.” While these statements may represent the judgment and future expectations of Townsend, a number of uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations of Townsend.

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Gauging Risk in Global Opportunities

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Working for a large insurance company like Allianz Real Estate has its advantages when looking at RE investment opportunities worldwide, says the firm’s chief risk officer Hauke Brede—namely that it can write larger checks that some of the competition. Brede also discusses how he looks at risk profiles, where in the world Allianz sees opportunities, and countries that are being avoided.

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Finding Commercial RE’s Big Data

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It’s time for commercial real estate managers and investors to dig under sales and better understand what actually drives value, says NAREIM CEO Gunnar Branson.

Big data makes big promises to transform society as we know it by allowing companies, institutions, and governments to tailor their services to precisely what is needed.

The focus of big data can vary widely, from individualized medical treatments and predictive policing to a sudden consumer preference for turtlenecks over V-necks on shirts, with big data leading a revolution in almost all sectors of all economies around the world—except, perhaps, in commercial real estate.

WithMe’s pop-up store in Michigan Ave., Chicago. Photos by Benny Chan, Fotoworks.

While there is undoubtedly plenty of data in real estate investment management, NAREIM chief executive Gunnar Branson contends that the industry has not yet explored at an appropriately granular level to get ahead of the curve when it comes to understanding future demand and supply.

“It’s been a frustration of mine for a long time,” says Branson. “Most analysis in our industry is essentially a sales and lease data discussion. We’ve yet to really go a level below that and discover the data that is based on what people are doing in and around the space we build, finance, and manage.”

The trouble with sales and leasing data, he adds, is that it’s a lagging indicator of change, cultivated from the eventual outcome of many other behaviors and trends in the market.

In order for real estate investment managers to stay ahead of the curve, Branson advises looking for data that is created by real-time behaviors such as GPS information from millions of people’s cell phones as they go about their day-to-day lives; user data from bike-share programs, such as New York’s Citi Bike or Chicago’s Divvy; car-share companies like Uber; and even consumer-research information gathered by groups such as Nielsen.

“These massive data sets can show where people are, where they are going, and when they are going there and what they are buying,” says Branson. “Patterns from that data can reveal where a retail property or residential building or office should be, or where a property might be losing density of human activity. Change in behaviors can be observed in real time long before comparable sales or leasing data could possibly reveal anything.

“Big data can help us to see what things could and even should be,” he adds.

Ultimately, Branson says, these data patterns get to the heart of the real estate business. “Real estate isn’t buildings. It’s the monetization of the density of people.”

So how can real estate be made more dense? “The way to do that is to create rich, rewarding, healthy, exciting environments where a lot of people come to work, live, and play, and which therefore creates stronger cash flow,” says Branson.

And once managers more accurately understand what people want, they can better anticipate change and more precisely and profitably “build, buy, lease, or sell any given asset.”

WithMe’s interactive changing room mirror.

Unfortunately for most GPs, real estate investment management data can be difficult to mine for big-data-style trends. “There are a lot of data points we look at in real estate, but it’s not really big data,” Branson says. “It’s not granular enough. It covers too much space and too much behavior in one number, and very little of it is readily accessible or reliable.”

The NAREIM chief executive cites the retail company WithMe, which opened its first mobile, fully interactive pop-up store in downtown Chicago for two weeks in October, as an example of the changing needs of shoppers and why more real estate investment managers need more granular data to better understand the continually changing use and definition of real estate.

Like a luxury version of a food truck, this real estate was able to provide a temporary pop-up home to two global retailers in an open plaza on Michigan Avenue. Branson says that TOMS Shoes and Raven & Lily used the pop-up store to showcase their online and in-store shopping environment. The store had interactive mirror displays that allowed customers to make purchases or request alternative products without leaving their changing room, and shelves that moved towards shoppers to suggest inventory related to products they had already selected or looked at.

And like a food truck, the pop-up store is able to move where potential buyers congregate. WithMe, Branson says, illustrates not only the challenge for tenants of long-term leases in real estate, but also the industry’s understanding of what real estate is in today’s markets.

“Is real estate a contract?” he asks. “A way that our industry helps to support and therefore monetize whatever activities people pursue, whether they are working, playing, or living their lives? If we are going to continue thriving as an industry, as people and businesses change behaviors, we have to do a better job of understanding what they are doing in real time.”

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Inside Changing Pressures on Asset Managers

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With tenants looking for shorter lease terms and tenant improvement costs rising, greater emphasis is being placed on the role of asset managers. ASB Real Estate’s managing director Jim Darcey talks about the value-add of asset managers today—and where the greatest pressures are being felt.

PrivcapRE: It’s a truism that asset managers operate ‘where the rubber meets the road’. How do asset managers add value?

Jim Darcey, ASB Real Estate Investments

Jim Darcey, ASB Real Estate: At ASB, we put a lot of emphasis on enhancing value after the buy. We always work hard to execute a solid transaction, but it’s what we do afterwards that makes us different. Our Capital Investment Group (CIG) is responsible for every property throughout its holding period. The CIG group manages all major real estate functions—sourcing, asset management, and the ultimate sale—creating ownership and accountability. Management teams are organized by asset, rather than by property type, geography or portfolio. They are constantly out in their markets and have a deep knowledge of local fundamentals.

Asset managers are responsible for each property’s budget. What kinds of budgetary stresses are you seeing today, compared to five years ago?

Darcey: Real estate taxes are a major issue today. Local jurisdictions face budgetary pressure and commercial property tax revenue is one way to bridge the gap.  Construction costs are another stress point. As the recovery gains traction, development is on the rise; as a result, material and labor costs are rising as well, affecting renovations and tenant improvement (TI) projects.   

What kinds of concessions and TI allowances are tenants demanding? 

Darcey: Tenants have always been demanding; they have every right to be demanding since after all, they are paying rent. But today, the demands are different. Demographic trends are changing the composition of the workforce, and millennials are playing a larger role in decision-making. In office buildings, the standard configuration of perimeter offices with internal cubicles, dropped ceilings and an interior kitchen are out of date. Now, open, collaborative spaces with interesting layouts, closely spaced work stations, and gathering places such as meeting spaces, entertainment areas and large kitchens are in demand. The search for interesting space is pushing tenants to less traditional markets in a search of live/work/play locations with high walkability and good public transportation. The aesthetics of place is as important as the aesthetics of space.

What changes are you seeing in lease terms? 

Darcey: Today, many tenants face uncertainty with respect to their long-term space needs. Small startups typically have a higher-than-average risk of failure, while more established businesses with strong growth prospects have to consider the possibility of running out of space. If a business does not have a long operating history, its future can be questionable and its growth in doubt. To mitigate uncertainty, a growing number of tenants are seeking leases structured for flexibility, with shorter terms and numerous renewal options as well as expansion rights to accommodate growth.

What concrete steps can the manager take to prevent assets from becoming problem assets?

Darcey: Every year the CIG group works through a formal process to rank all of ASB’s assets from top to bottom. An analysis of the bottom quartile explores why the asset is underperforming, how to fix it, and if a fix is not possible, an exit strategy is formulated. The active management approach is followed: “If you’re not a seller, you’re a buyer.”

Are holding periods shorter today? What triggers an exit?

Darcey: ASB’s philosophy is to build a strong portfolio positioned for growth across the cycles. In general, the strategy is to buy for the long term, but the firm is an active seller, redeploying capital where it can be put to better use.    

Are you seeing more pressure to improve the operating efficiency of your buildings, given the increased emphasis on sustainability?

Darcey: It’s just good business to operate responsibly. Some tenants are laser-focused on sustainability and this may influence their choice of space. The use of EnergyStar programs is almost a given. Achieving LEED Gold or Platinum designation can be hard, but it’s an important goal.

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Shipping Containers: The New Real Estate

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Housing startups in the U.S. and other countries are turning to shipping containers to provide lower-cost, mixed-use, affordable, and student housing.

Shipping containers are essential to transporting everything from smartphones to Cuisinart appliances around the world. But the once lowly container is now emerging as a game-changer, disrupting several sectors of the real estate investment market, not least housing, retail, and hospitality.

Indeed, as the global economy continues its slower growth, many of the world’s 17M shipping containers are proving ideal solutions for real estate developers wanting efficiency and flexibility.

Tempohousing’s Keetwonen complex, the biggest container city in the world.

The $210M redevelopment of New York’s historic Pier 57 will use more than 450 shipping containers to house retail stores and food stands, a design that will preserve the pier’s Marine & Aviation building and showcase the capability of a logistics solution as a rentable space. To design the interior, Pier 57 developer Young Woo & Associates brought in LO-TEK, an architectural studio based in New York and Naples, Italy that initiated the concept of using standard 40-foot shipping containers to build commercial property.

LO-TEK has also used the shipping container in the design of a building for Spacious, a real estate startup that’s searching for a site in New York City to erect a prototype structure combining a coffee shop, hotel rooms, and coworking space. Spacious co-founder and CEO Preston Pesek says in an email interview that the plan is to lease “a site where we can erect and operate with a minimum duration of 10 years, then disassemble and return a vacant site to the landlord.”

The concept is all about the maximum utilization of space. Spacious, for instance, offers hotel guests a discount rate if they allow their rooms to be rented as conference space when they’re out and about. “It’s wasteful to design single-purpose spaces that are productive for only 50 percent of every day, in locations where demand for space exists 100 percent of the time,” according to Spacious’ website.

That underutilization of space also extends to affordable housing. Kasita, a real estate startup producing mobile, micro units has leased land in Austin, Texas for a rack that will hold nine 208-square-foot studio apartments built in shipping containers. It’s the brainchild of Jeff Wilson, a professor and dean at Huston-Tillotson University, who earned the moniker “Professor Dumpster” for living in a 33-foot converted trash container for a year to explore affordable housing concepts.

With help from industrial design agency Frog, Kasita has developed a patent-pending tile system that allows for virtually infinite combinations of shelving, storage, and functional items such as clocks and sound system—with a subwoofer in the floor—plus spa-like amenities like an in-wall fireplace and live plants.

The economic rationale is to unlock value by building on small tracts of land previously deemed unusable; Kasita aims to rent at just half the market rate of a traditional urban studio apartment. Kasita declined a request for an interview, but appears busy—following the planned launch in Austin in the spring of 2016, Kasita’s development team is lining up potential partners in nearly a dozen cities including Chicago and Stockholm.

It may not be long before shipping containers also appear in student housing portfolios. The largest container city in the world, Keetwonen, is a student housing complex in space-constrained, rent-controlled Amsterdam. Started in 2006 with just 60 units built in China by Dutch manufacturer Tempohousing, the project now includes more than 1,000 units on 4.5 acres.

Tempohousing founder Quinten de Gooijer hatched the plan after two of his cousins came to study in Amsterdam but were unable to find housing. Dutch rent controls did not allow for charging the amount needed to support development costs, so De Gooijer, a real estate developer, converted containers to housing units at a low enough cost to stay below rent ceilings.

Intended to be moved from its original site after five years, Keetwonen’s relocation has been postponed until 2016. Offering private bathrooms instead of common facilities, Keetwonen has become one of the most popular student accommodations in the Netherlands—the waiting list is more than a year.

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